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Did a meteor bring down Air France 447?

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DAR

DAR
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Cette hypothèse n'est certainement pas la plus économique, je me borne ici à signaler son existence (si aucun débris n'est jamais retrouvé, on peut parier que l'hypothèse d'une abduction massive par les ET sera bientôt également émise sur le web par la lunatic fringe) :

Did a meteor bring down Air France 447?

Back in 1996, after the initially very mysterious explosion and crash of Flight 800 from JFK to Rome, there were numerous eyewitness accounts of a “streak in the sky” just before the crash. This led to the “missile theory” of the crash, which was eventually attributed to the explosion of the center fuel tank by the NTSB. But, also at the time, it was suggested that a meteor of sufficient size could have struck the plane, bringing it down.

Could a meteor have brought down Air France 447? Today we are starting to see reports that there actually may have been a meteor:

However, both pilots of an Air Comet flight from Lima to Lisbon sent a written report on the bright flash they said they saw to Air France, Airbus and the Spanish civil aviation authority, the airline told CNN.

“Suddenly, we saw in the distance a strong and intense flash of white light, which followed a descending and vertical trajectory and which broke up in six seconds,” the captain wrote.

Obviously for any given flight the chances are very, very small that a meteor will bring down an airliner, but as Hailey and Helfand pointed out in a letter to the NYT in 1996, the correct question to ask is this: “What is the probability that, for all flights in history, one or more could have been downed by a meteor?” They concluded that there was a 1-in-10 chance that this could happen…let’s use their logic, brought up to date somewhat, for 2009, for Flight 447.

Helfand, an astronomer, is presumably the one who estimated that “approximately 3,000 meteors a day with the requisite mass strike Earth”. This is a difficult number to get. How much mass? How fast does it need to be moving? But let’s assume that this number is correct; it translates to 125 meteors per hour.

Next we need to know the total number of flight hours at altitude for all commercial planes. In 2000 there were about 18 million flights per year. Clearly in the past 20 years (which we’ll take as our reference, since it spans 1989-2009, with both flights 800 and 447) it was not always so…but let’s take a guess that the 18 million figure is roughly correct for that 20 year period. That would yield 360 million commercial airline flights from 1989-2000. Hailey and Helfand assumed that each flight was two hours in duration. Again, a tough number to find on line, so we’ll take it at face value, giving us 720 million flight hours in our reference period.

They also claim that if there were 3500 planes in the air at any time, this would correspond to covering two-billionths of Earth’s surface. Now the earth’s surface area is 5×1014 m2. Using my trusty HP-15c, I get that this would imply an average target area for a commercial airliner of 291 m2, which is reasonable. Each plane, that is, covers 5.7×10-13 of Earth’s surface. If a meteor hits the earth it has that probability of hitting a given plane on average.

So, in our reference 20-year period we have 720 million hours of flight time, times 125 meteors per hour, times 5.7×10-13 = 0.051, which we can take as the average number of airliners struck by meteors in the period 1989-2009. That’s a one-in-twenty chance of some plane going down for this reason in that 20 year period. Extrapolating to all flights ever would require a better estimate of total flight hours, but it’s not twenty times the number in the past 20 years, for sure - that is, it’s not yet close to one.

Obviously there are a lot of uncertainties in this estimate; perhaps a factor of two from the number of meteors of sufficient mass per day, the average flight duration and number of flights?

Anyway the meteor idea is not crazy, though not likely. The weather seems more likely to be at the root of the tragedy…but we may never know. One thing, though, is clear: if we keep flying big planes at high altitude, eventually one will get hit by a meteor.

Rosetta

Rosetta
Administration
Administration

(si aucun débris n'est jamais retrouvé, on peut parier que l'hypothèse d'une abduction massive par les ET sera bientôt également émise sur le web par la lunatic fringe)

C'est bien parti : http://www.godlikeproductions.com/search.php?q=air+france

Invité


Invité

DAR a écrit: on peut parier que l'hypothèse d'une abduction massive par les ET sera bientôt également émise sur le web par la lunatic fringe) :

Oui, bien parti :

https://www.dailymotion.com/search/ovni/video/x9hf34_vol-af447-airbus-a330-hommage-et-op_webcam

EspressoFrog

EspressoFrog
Modération
Modération

Oh Joli, bravo Kristine et Rosetta, la vous avez trouvé du grand cru.

Oui il a pas fallut quelque jours pour qu'ils bondissent dessus avec leur "je le savais c'est les Atlantides!"
Mais que pense JPP, je suis sur qu'il nous "cache tout" aussi celui la.

Venom

Venom
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Le coup "des avions qui disparaissent sans laisser de traces" qui deviennent un phénomène fortéen, c'est la fondation même du Triangle des Bermudes...

Vu les profondeurs de l'océan, cela n'a rien d'étonnant qu'on ai du mal à retrouver des traces, mais bon, on préfère imaginer les hypothèses les plus extravagantes.

http://scepticismescientifique.blogspot.com/

Invité


Invité

L'hypothèse (!) "Triangle des Bermudes" est "évoquée" dans le forum pointé par Rosetta.

Des profs de géographie doivent se mordre les doigts !

Voilà l'hypothèse (sic) HAARP sur le net aussi :

https://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/AF+447/video/x9hivt_vol-af-447-haarp-conspiration_news

EspressoFrog

EspressoFrog
Modération
Modération

"Tout a fait" (pour reprendre une expression idiomatique des Bogdanofs) il y a des sacrée perles dans ce forum, au point ou je me demandais au départ si la plus part des commentaires ne sont pas parodiques.

"Aliens have Abucted entire Air France plane" sort etre sortit tout droit de Somethingawful.
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message807106/pg1


msg 1
Having found no debris and considering the plane was flying over the Atlantic Ocean (Bermuda triangle?), it is now likely that aliens abducted the entire plane with all passengers on board.Prove me wrong.
(Belle inversion de la charge de preuve juste pour commencer)


msg 2
The plane didn't fly anywhere near the Bermuda Triangle. Do your research before you post nonsense.
(ah tiens, un qui est mieux réveillé)


msg 3
How do you know that? The plane could have flown into an inter-dimensional vortex that spit them out over the Bermuda triangle.

Ouiiiiiiiiiiiii !! Did a meteor bring down Air France 447? Respect Did a meteor bring down Air France 447? Respect Did a meteor bring down Air France 447? Respect

mais bon y'a personne dans les messages suivants qui prennent ca au sérieux.

DAR

DAR
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Un journal US revient, à l'occasion de ce crash de l'Airbus d'Air France, sur une précédente catastrophe, celle du vol TWA 800, qui illustre une nouvelle fois le manque de fiabilité du témoignage humain. Il s'agissait ici pourtant d'une observation massive (plus de 700 témoins !) :

Lessons from TWA Flight 800

For instance, when TWA Flight 800 exploded over Long Island in 1996, initial speculation centered on a terrorist attack or a missile strike. In part, that’s because of testimony from more than 700 witnesses, some of whom believed they saw what looked like a flare heading toward the plane before it broke apart.

That prompted the NTSB to focus a lot of attention on that question and the Federal Bureau of Investigation to open an investigation parallel to the NTSB’s. More than a year later, the FBI dropped it saying it had found no evidence of criminal activity.

“If you remember TWA Flight 800, a lot of people thought they saw a lot of different things,” Healing says. “And that turned out to be total speculation and misleading to some degree. There are still people who believe that it was a missile [that brought the plane down].”

Healing helped investigate the cause of that crash, among many others. In that case, he focused on the wiring. The NTSB ultimately determined in 2000 that the “probable cause” was indeed faulty wiring which ignited jet fuel fumes in the center wing fuel tank causing the explosion.

“Having been in and out of the wreckage numerous times I can tell you that it’s quite clear what happened,” he says. “The physical facts are very, very telling, and the confirmation of it came from careful reconstruction of virtually everything that could be reconstructed.”

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